Van der Poel, Seixas and the law of the strongest

In generations past, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad often had a more tentative feel. For the grandees of the peloton, their first contact of the year with the cobbles and hills of the Flemish Ardennes was a test as much as a race. 

Tom Boonen was a case in point. He never won Omloop, but he was always an intrinsic part of the fabric of the race. Most years, he would make a point of lining out the bunch with a rasping acceleration on the smooth gutter of the Taaienberg, and it was hard to shake off the sense that the effort was less about trying to win Omloop than about gauging his form five weeks out from the Tour of Flanders.

For the masses on the roadsides, Boonen’s annual Taaienberg flex was part of the ritual of the occasion, much like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day. If Tommeke’s putting the hammer down, then the Flemish winter must be over.

Boonen came closest to Omloop victory in 2012, when he was surprisingly outsprinted by Sep Vanmarcke in Ghent. The immediate disappointment of his supporters was quickly overtaken by a consoling thought: as every pub bore in Belgium knows, no man has ever won Omloop and the Tour of Flanders in the same season.

By losing Omloop, perhaps Boonen had appeased the pagan gods of cycling. Five weeks later, he duly won a record-equalling third Tour of Flanders before adding a record-equalling fourth Paris-Roubaix. 

That kind of magical thinking no longer applies in 2026. When Mathieu van der Poel confirmed in midweek that he would make his Omloop Het Nieuwsblad debut, it was immediately clear that he was lining up to win rather than simply to enjoy a public training ride in the Flemish Ardennes.

Even Van der Poel’s suggestion that he was setting out as a co-leader with Alpecin-Premier Tech teammate Jasper Philipsen didn’t quite ring true. Sure enough, when Philipsen was delayed by a puncture after the Eikenberg, Alpecin-Premier Tech still weren’t dissuaded from massing on the front for Van der Poel. The addition of the Tenbosse and the Parikeberg to the finale meant that this was a race where the strongest seemed certain to prevail, and so it proved.

There was an inevitability about Van der Poel’s victory, even if he diced with ill fortune when the unfortunate Rick Pluimers (Tudor) crashed in front of him on the Molenberg. Van der Poel deftly avoided the crash and then zoomed across the gap that had formed to Florian Vermeersch (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). By the time they reached the summit, the winning move had taken shape, with Tim van Dijke (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) scrambling across over the other side.

From there, it was simply a question of choosing his moment. With Vermeersch and Van Dijke happy to contribute turns as they swept up the break, Van der Poel opted for clemency on the climbs that followed before forging clear – seemingly without even realising it – on the lower slopes of the Muur van Geraardsbergen. Game over.

There was little to be done in the face of Van der Poel’s overwhelming strength, though Het Nieuwsblad’s Wim Vos pointed out that Vermeersch had still done too much by working with the Dutchman in the first place. 

“However noble and charming it all may have seemed, the question is whether it was such a smart move,” Vos wrote. “How do you beat Van der Poel? It will be one of the big questions this spring. Vermeersch has certainly shown how not to do it.”

In defending Vermeersch’s tactics afterwards, Van der Poel inadvertently confirmed what we already knew: everybody else was riding for second place at this edition of Omloop from the moment they left Ghent on Saturday morning.

“If he doesn’t pull, he won’t be on the podium, and this is what people also forget,” Van der Poel said. “You arrive empty handed if you don’t pull, so it’s normal you help and get rewarded with a podium at Omloop. That’s worth something.”

Van der Poel’s victory at Omloop was of a piece with the overall tone of bike racing in the 2020s. Tactical intrigue has been erased by brute force. Surprise winners have been put back in their place by the astounding reliability of the strongest riders in the peloton. 

Without being prompted on Saturday evening, Van der Poel spoke of the absent Tadej Pogacar as his biggest obstacle this spring, and with good reason. Between them, Van der Poel and Pogacar have won 13 of the last 15 Monuments, plus the last three World Championships road races. 

In Van der Poel’s absence next weekend, Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite to win his fourth Strade Bianche, just as the Dutchman was essentially lining out without a peer in Flanders on Saturday.

And the prevailing trend isn’t limited just to the two greatest Monument hunters of their generation. While Van der Poel was easing to Omloop victory on Saturday afternoon, Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) was cruising to a solo triumph at the Ardèche Classic, casually taking a swig from his bidon as he burned Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) off his wheel. Nobody in the race could match Seixas’ watts/kg, and so he won by a street. As simple and as complicated as that. 

2020s cycling feels like an increasingly distant relative of what came before, with the best riders seemingly at full gas every time they pin on a number from February to October and the outcome all the more predictable as a result. 

In his press conference on Saturday evening, Van der Poel was asked if, at any point during his solo effort, he had thought about how no man had ever won Omloop and the Tour of Flanders in the same season. “Not a single time,” he laughed, and with good reason. The variables of yesteryear seemingly no longer apply.