Rasmussen believes Pogacar can decide Tour battle with Vingegaard on the Tourmalet in first week

The first major mountain stage starts in Pau and features around 4,100 metres of climbing. All three classified climbs are packed into the final 80 kilometres, beginning with the Col d’Aspin, a 12 kilometre ascent at an average gradient of 6.5 percent.

From there, the riders head directly towards the Col du Tourmalet. Climbed from Sainte Marie de Campan, the Tourmalet is 17 kilometres long at 7.3 percent and takes the race above 2,000 metres for the first time.

“There is a real risk that the race could be decided here,” Rasmussen said at Viaplay.

The two time winner of the polka dot jersey sees the Tourmalet as the obvious place for Pogačar and his team to put Vingegaard under pressure. If they increase the pace early enough, Rasmussen believes the Dane could already find himself in difficulty before the final climb.

“If Pogačar is as strong as I think he is, and his team is as strong as I think it is, they can start the move five kilometres from the top of the Tourmalet,” he said. “He could reach the summit with a one minute lead over Vingegaard.”

A gap at the summit would be difficult to close, particularly if the chasing group has been torn apart and riders are scattered across the mountains.

“He could still have that minute at the bottom of the descent, while the rest of the riders are spread across half the Pyrenees,” Rasmussen said. “The difference could grow to two minutes before the finish. Then it becomes very difficult to challenge Pogačar.”

Last year, Pogačar opened his first meaningful gap over Vingegaard in the opening week time trial. Visma | Lease a Bike responded by throwing everything at the Slovenian in an attempt to unsettle him, but the plan failed to produce the desired result. Pogačar then delivered a crushing blow on the climb to Hautacam, taking more than two minutes out of Vingegaard.

Should Rasmussen’s prediction come true, a similar pattern could unfold. Visma may once again be forced to race aggressively across every type of terrain in the hope of exposing a weakness in Pogačar. On current form, however, breaking the Slovenian looks like an enormous challenge.