Five in a row for Pogacar? – 2025 Il Lombardia Preview

Here are the key details for this years Il Lombardia:

Date: Saturday, October 11
Length: 241 km
Elevation gain: 4400+m
Start and finish time: 10:55 (CET) - around 16:45 (CET)

The 119th edition of Il Lombardia features a 241-kilometre route beginning in picturesque Como and finishing in Bergamo. Across those 241 kilometres, there is a vast amount of climbing to contend with, totalling more than 4,400 metres of elevation. The parcours repeats that of the 2023 edition. The action is set to get underway at 10:55 CET, with an expected finish around 16:45 CET.

The opening 30 kilometres are filled with rolling terrain, providing a gentle warm-up for the peloton before reaching the first climb of the day: the iconic Madonna del Ghisallo (8.8km at 3.9%). Riders will be thankful to tackle the easier side of this legendary ascent. At the top sits a chapel filled with cycling memorabilia from champions through the ages, while an eternal flame burns in memory of every cyclist who has died on Italian roads.

Next to the chapel stands the Museo del Ciclismo, home to a vast collection of Italian cycling history, including statues of national icons Gino Bartali and Fausto Coppi, the record holder for most Il Lombardia victories with five.

After descending from the Madonna del Ghisallo, the riders face the longest flat section of the day, a stretch of 45.8 kilometres, before reaching the 2.7-kilometre climb of San Gottardo, which serves as a prelude to the Roncola.

The summit of the 6.5% San Gottardo comes just 15 kilometres before the base of the Roncola, a true brute of a climb. The Roncola stretches for 9.4 kilometres with an average gradient of 6.6%, but it is much tougher than it looks. The central 5.3 kilometres average 8.2%, with a maximum gradient of 17% near the start. Expect riders with tired legs to drop here.

Approaching the midpoint of the race, the climb of Brebenno will be far gentler than the previous ascent, measuring 6.8 kilometres at 4.8%, with a maximum gradient of 8%.

The real action begins after Brebenno with the Passo della Crocetta (11km), quickly followed by Zambla Alta after a short respite. It is almost a foregone conclusion that Tadej Pogačar could launch his move here. The four-time Il Lombardia winner will be looking to equal Fausto Coppi’s record of five victories. The Passo della Crocetta suits him perfectly, featuring 5.9 kilometres at 7% after a 5.1-kilometre opening stretch of the climb, averaging 6.1%.

There is a brief lull between the Crocetta and Zambla Alta, about 11 kilometres of gentle descending, offering a chance for a chase group to reorganise. But the race is likely to split again on the 9.5-kilometre Zambla Alta, where the final third averages 7% and peaks at 10%.

The penultimate climb, the Passo di Ganda, is the main attraction of the 2025 edition. Last seen in 2023, it was where Pogačar could not shake off Aleksandr Vlasov, Primož Roglič, Simon Yates and Andrea Bagioli until he attacked on the descent. The Passo di Ganda itself is 9.2 kilometres long with an average gradient of 7.3%, and pitches up to 15% near the summit.

The final climb of the 2025 Il Lombardia is the ascent to Largo Colle Aperto (1.3km), featuring ramps over 10% and 200 metres of cobblestones. Expect adoring Italian fans to line the climb as they have so many times before.

In the final kilometre, riders face just one smooth left-hand bend with 750 metres remaining before a completely straight 600-metre run to the finish line.

Can Tadej Pogačar make it five victories in a row at Il Lombardia? You might as well write it down already. Let’s not sugar-coat it. The Slovenian superstar, who has transcended the sport itself, has made his recent solo victories look completely effortless. 

He claimed the rainbow jersey at the World Championships and added the stars of Europe at the European Championships. In 2024, Pogačar attacked from 48 kilometres out and won by an astounding margin of more than three minutes over Remco Evenepoel.

It will be difficult for Evenepoel to dethrone the king of Lombardia in 2025. The Belgian has repeatedly finished second behind the Slovenian in recent races. At the European Championships, Evenepoel briefly looked capable of staying with Pogačar, but the Slovenian accelerated with his trademark elegance, leaving Evenepoel to fight for second in a chasing group he ultimately distanced. 

A similar outcome may well play out again this Saturday, unless Evenepoel can somehow find a way to overcome Pogačar, even in this much longer race.

Richard Carapaz has the potential to catch rivals off guard with a long-range attack. The Ecuadorian finished a respectable eighth in the 2023 edition. Primož Roglič, meanwhile, has consistently fought for victory at Il Lombardia, yet somehow the Slovenian compatriot of Pogačar has never managed to add this Monument to his illustrious career. Could 2025 finally be the year?

If Pogačar once again rides clear with Evenepoel in pursuit, the real contest may unfold behind them for the final podium place, with Carapaz and Roglič likely joined by Paul Seixas, Mattias Skjelmose and Tom Pidcock.

The weather forecast for Saturday looks promising. It should stay dry with plenty of sunshine throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to rise to around 20 degrees, with a light to moderate southeasterly breeze. The riders will face plenty of climbing, and as usual, it will be a little cooler at altitude, around 15 degrees on the higher sections. Conditions in the mountains are also expected to remain dry and bright.