Tour de France stage 13 preview: A breakaway opportunity before the mountain weekend?
After two days for the sprinters, stage 13 appears to offer the attackers their chance. The general classification contenders are unlikely to show their full hand before a demanding weekend in the mountains, leaving the door open for a strong and versatile breakaway.
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Stage 13 | Dole - Belfort (204.93km)
The sprinters have enjoyed two consecutive opportunities, while the climbers and overall contenders will take centre stage this weekend. In between sits a stage seemingly designed for opportunists.
The long, predominantly flat approach will make it difficult for pure climbers to enter the breakaway. Those who do make the move will then need to survive the Ballon d’Alsace before committing to a fast and technical run towards Belfort.
Key information:
- Start: 13:20 (CET)
- Estimated Finish: 17:46 (CET)
- Stage type: Hilly
- Stage length: 204.93km
- Elevation gain: 2363m
Follow stage 13 live at Domestique with our live reporting.
Route
Stage 13 has an unusual profile. For approximately 150 kilometres, the road is largely flat. The character of the race changes dramatically in the final quarter, however, with two climbs arriving in quick succession.
The Col des Croix provides the first test. At 5.1 kilometres and an average gradient of 4.7 percent, it is unlikely to decide the stage, but it will begin to expose any tired legs in the breakaway.
After a short descent and a six kilometre valley section, the riders reach the decisive climb of the day: the Ballon d’Alsace. The first category ascent measures 8.7 kilometres at 6.9 percent and is likely to determine which riders can contest the victory.
From the summit, only 30 kilometres remain. The route features around 12 kilometres of descending, followed by 18 kilometres of gradually downhill roads towards Belfort.
Key points
- Intermediate sprint - 68.3km to go
- Col des Croix | 3rd category - 5.1km at 4.7% - 48.5km to go
- Ballon d'Alsace | 1st category - 8.7km at 6.9%¨- 30km to go
Scenario
Predicting the outcome of stage 13 is far from straightforward.
A breakaway victory appears to be the most likely scenario. Few teams will be willing to control more than 200 kilometres for a rider who may struggle to survive the Ballon d’Alsace, particularly with two major mountain stages still to come.
The composition of the breakaway could be just as important as the climbing itself. With such a long and flat opening section, entering the move will require strength, positioning and a degree of good fortune. Pure climbers may find it difficult to follow the powerful riders who traditionally force the decisive move on flatter terrain.
The ideal contender therefore needs a rare combination of qualities: enough power to make the breakaway, sufficient climbing ability to survive the Ballon d’Alsace and the descending skills to remain in contention on the road to Belfort.
Lidl-Trek could complicate the picture. With Mads Pedersen targeting the green jersey, the team may have an incentive to control the stage. They already demonstrated on stage four that they are prepared to invest heavily in bringing a breakaway back for their leader. If Pedersen believes he can survive the final climb, Lidl-Trek could once again take responsibility.
Favourites
The list of favourites is unusually difficult to define. The flat opening, the Ballon d’Alsace and the fast descent towards Belfort demand very different qualities.
Mads Pedersen is the most obvious name if Lidl-Trek decides to control the race. The team showed on stage four that it is prepared to chase for its leader, and this stage could be important in his pursuit of the green jersey. Pedersen has the power for the flat opening and the sprint to finish the job, but everything will depend on whether he can survive the Ballon d’Alsace.
The role of the other Lidl-Trek riders is less clear upfront. On stage 4, they did not get the chance to go for their own result, with Pedersen as the team’s main card, so will they here? That is why Quinn Simmons is included as a joker for a potential breakaway, as he looks like the team’s best option besides Pedersen.
However, one can never count out Mattias Vacek, Derek Gee-West and Toms Skujiņš, but the number of places in the star ratings is limited.
Jayco AlUla has several strong options. Michael Matthews looks particularly well suited to the route. Despite his earlier crash, he has appeared strong and combines power, climbing ability, descending skills and a fast sprint. If a reduced group reaches Belfort together, he will be difficult to beat.
Mauro Schmid is another serious contender. He understands breakaway racing better than most and appears to be improving as the Tour progresses. Luke Plapp could also feature, although his lack of explosiveness means he will probably need to attack alone before the finish.
Filippo Ganna (Netcompany Ineos) will be one of the most fascinating riders to follow. He looked extremely strong in the team time trial and on stage nine, while a puncture ended his chances on stage 12. The long flat opening suits him perfectly.
The main question is whether he can stay close enough to the best climbers on the Ballon d’Alsace. If he reaches the summit near the front, his power on the descent and the road towards Belfort could make him very dangerous.
Kévin Vauquelin provides the British team with another strong option. He appears to be improving throughout the Tour and has the power to make the breakaway, the climbing ability to survive the final ascent and the speed to win from a small group.
Tudor will hope that Marc Hirschi can continue his return to form. The Swiss rider has a strong sprint, climbs well and is capable of entering a breakaway on flat roads. His greatest weapon could be his descending. If he crests the Ballon d’Alsace with the leaders, he could create a decisive gap on the way down.
For Alpecin-Premier Tech, Ramses Debruyne looks like the most interesting option. He is enjoying a breakthrough season and possesses the climbing, descending and sprinting qualities needed for this stage. His biggest challenge may be making the breakaway during the fast opening phase.
EF Education EasyPost is likely to race aggressively. Alex Baudin appears to be the team’s strongest card and arrives in excellent form. He can force his way into a breakaway on the flat and climb well enough to make a difference on the Ballon d’Alsace. A sprint against faster riders would be less favourable.
Michael Valgren offers more experience and tactical intelligence. He knows how to win from a breakaway and has continued to show strong form after also completing 18 stages of the Giro, where he claimed a stage victory.
Movistar will focus on stage hunting following the departure of Cian Uijtdebroeks. Javier Romo appears to be the team’s best chance. He has looked strong and has the engine to attack alone, which may be necessary given his limited sprint.
Raúl García Pierna is a more versatile option. He is powerful on the flat, climbs and descends well and has a respectable sprint. Pablo Castrillo is also in good form, although the descent from the Ballon d’Alsace may not play to his strengths.
Other riders to watch include Harold Tejada of XDS Astana, Marco Frigo of NSN, and Anders Halland Johannessen of Uno-X Mobility.
Domestique Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pedersen
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Matthews, Ganna
⭐⭐⭐ Hirschi, Debruyne, Baudin
⭐⭐ Schmid, Valgren, Vauquelin, Romo
⭐ Plapp, Tejada, Pierna, Frigo, A. Halland Johannessen
🃏 Simmons
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