Tour de France stage 12 preview: A final chance for the sprinters?
The sprinters are expected to get another opportunity on stage 12 of the Tour de France. With few obvious chances remaining, however, their teams cannot afford to let this one slip away.
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Stage 12 | Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours - Chalon-sur-Saône (180.94km)
The route is not completely flat, meaning a powerful breakaway could put the sprint teams under pressure. With this potentially the final opportunity for the pure sprinters, however, the expectation is that their teams will do everything possible to control the race.
Key information:
- Start: 13:30 (CET)
- Estimated Finish: 17:29 (CET)
- Stage type: flat
- Stage length: 180.94km
- Elevation gain: 1613m
Follow stage 12 live at Domestique with our live reporting.
Route
This could be the final opportunity for the pure sprinters, so their teams are likely to commit fully to controlling the breakaway.
That will not necessarily be straightforward. A strong group of attackers could make life difficult, as happened on stage 5, while the forecast southwesterly wind should provide favourable conditions for riders at the front. The tailwind could become particularly significant in the finale.
The most demanding section begins with around 37 kilometres remaining and continues until the final categorised climb, the Côte de Montagny-les-Buxy, which is crested with 20 kilometres to go.
A descent of just under four kilometres follows. From there, the riders face 16 kilometres of gently descending false flat roads, punctuated by several rolling sections.
The terrain could favour a strong group of attackers, particularly if the peloton hesitates. At the same time, the undulating finale will add fatigue to the legs of the sprinters and their leadout riders.
Only one corner presents a significant obstacle in the final kilometres. It comes shortly before the two kilometre mark and is relatively tight. There will be time to regain positions afterwards, but the sprinters will still want to enter it near the front.
The final two kilometres are straight and take place on a wide road, providing an ideal setting for a high speed sprint.
Key points
- Intermediate sprint - 133.5km to go
- Côte de Lanty | 4th category - 1.9km at 4.0% - 102.5km to go
- Côte de Cuzy | 4th category - 1.9km at 5.9% - 81.5km to go
- Côte de Montagny-les-Buxy | 4th category - 2.7km at 4.0% - 20km to go
Scenario
The sprint teams will need to pay close attention during the battle to form the early breakaway.
Throughout this Tour, they have generally been quick to neutralise dangerous attackers such as Kasper Asgreen and Jonas Abrahamsen. Stage 12 could prove more difficult to control, however, as many powerful riders will identify this as a genuine opportunity.
A strong group that reaches the hilly final 40 kilometres with a useful advantage will be difficult to bring back. The tailwind towards Chalon-sur-Saône could further favour the riders at the front.
Even if the breakaway is eventually caught, the chase is likely to influence the sprint. The additional effort will leave both the sprinters and their leadout trains carrying more fatigue than in previous flat finishes.
Lidl-Trek could make the finale even harder. The team has the strength to increase the pace on the Côte de Montagny-les-Buxy and continue the effort all the way to the finish. Such an approach could distance some of the pure sprinters or leave them too fatigued to produce their best acceleration.
Favourites
Jasper Philipsen appeared to have his best legs of the Tour on stage 11. Only Søren Wærenskjold, who surprised the sprinters with a perfectly timed late attack, and Olav Kooij crossed the line ahead of him.
Philipsen was initially relegated before that decision was reversed, adding further confusion to an already frustrating result.
The Alpecin-Premier Tech sprinter often performs at his best when racing with a point to prove. Combined with a more demanding finale that should reward sprinters who can handle fatigue, stage 12 represents an excellent opportunity.
Philipsen could also feature on stage 21 in Paris, but he will be determined to secure a victory before then.
Tim Merlier can never be discounted. The Soudal Quick-Step sprinter was boxed in on two occasions during the stage 11 finale and was unable to launch a proper sprint.
The accumulated fatigue from this route may not play directly to his strengths, but Merlier remains arguably the fastest pure sprinter in the peloton. A clean run to the line would make him one of the leading candidates for victory.
Biniam Girmay should welcome the harder nature of the stage. The NSN rider has repeatedly shown strong speed during this Tour but has struggled to find the right position in the decisive kilometres.
Positioning may become slightly less important if the hills and a demanding chase reduce the size of the peloton. Girmay also handles fatigue exceptionally well, making this finale particularly suitable for him.
Olav Kooij is capable of winning both conventional flat sprints and finishes that come at the end of a more demanding stage. The Decathlon CMA CGM sprinter has been remarkably consistent throughout the Tour and should again be among the strongest riders in the finale.
Max Kanter is another sprinter who should not be troubled by the elevation. The XDS Astana rider combines endurance with a fast finish and looked particularly strong during the uphill intermediate sprint against Mads Pedersen on stage 10.
Mads Pedersen gives Lidl-Trek several tactical options. The Dane handles rolling terrain extremely well, while his team has the strength to make the Côte de Montagny-les-Buxy as difficult as possible.
By increasing the pace on the final climb, Lidl-Trek could eliminate some of the fastest sprinters or force them to use valuable energy before the finish. That would improve Pedersen’s chances of winning while also allowing him to gain further points in the green jersey competition.
Pavel Bittner and Picnic PostNL have yet to produce the result they were hoping for. Under normal circumstances, the tougher finale would suit Bittner, although his disrupted preparation makes his current level difficult to judge.
Søren Wærenskjold gave Uno-X Mobility plenty to celebrate with his stage 11 victory. Consistency has not always been his strongest quality, however. Last season, for example, he got dropped very early at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne one day after winning the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
Stage 12 also comes two days after his crash on stage 10, a point at which riders can often experience the most discomfort. His recovery will therefore be an important factor.
Huub Artz has become Lotto Intermarché’s sprint option following the abandonment of Arnaud De Lie. Artz has already collected two top five finishes, an impressive return for a rider who was not expected to lead the team in bunch sprints.
The demanding finale should suit him even better, as he possesses the endurance required to survive a hard race.
Rick Pluimers has also received more sprint opportunities following the abandonment of Tudor teammate Arvid de Kleijn.
Pluimers is an excellent positioner, although he lacks the outright speed of the fastest sprinters. A harder stage increases his chances, particularly because he climbs well and should arrive at the finish fresher than some of his rivals.
Uno-X Mobility is one of the most obvious teams to watch if the race develops in favour of the breakaway. Jonas Abrahamsen is among the strongest rouleurs in the peloton and is extremely difficult to bring back once he has established a gap. The team can also rely on Magnus Cort, whose ability to win from an early breakaway or a well timed late attack makes him a natural contender on this type of terrain.
Kasper Asgreen is another major threat to the sprint teams. The EF Education-EasyPost rider has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to resist a chasing peloton, including during last year’s Giro d’Italia. At the 2024 Tour de France, he stayed ahead of the peloton on two consecutive sprint stages, winning one before narrowly losing the other to Matej Mohorič.
Few riders possess more raw power than Filippo Ganna, who showed his excellent condition during the opening team time trial and again on stage 9. The Netcompany-Ineos rider could shape the race from the early breakaway, launch a late attack in the final kilometres or even contest the sprint from a reduced group.
Lotto-Intermarché also has two interesting options in Liam Slock and Baptiste Veistroffer. Both riders have already shown their willingness and ability to race aggressively during this Tour and could take advantage if the sprint teams allow a strong group to escape.
Domestique Stars
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Philipsen
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Merlier, Girmay
⭐⭐⭐ Kooij, Kanter, Ganna
⭐⭐ Pedersen, Abrahamsen, Bittner, Asgreen
⭐ Waerenskjold, Artz, Cort, Slock, Pluimers
🃏 Veistroffer
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